What would be the core areas you have to cover in order to have a most accurate forecast for the company?

FIFCO is a football manufacturing company in Sialkot, it has started its operations from January 2000 and since then the company is unable to gain ample profits and grab the expected market share. The major mismanagement noticed is especially in the area of inventory management. Due to this finished stocks are pilling up in the warehouses. The situation is very drastic and company is unable to handle its stock. It seems that the company is facing problems in their forecasting, as the company is unable to assess and meet the actual market response that might affect the demand and fulfillment of customer’s orders. After analyzing the situational factors it seems that the company is unable to forecast demand effectively. The actual and forecasted demand of the past five years is given as under:

Years 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Actual demand (Units) 4000 3700 4000 4150 4050

Demand Forecasted (Units) 4500 4000 3500 3500 4200

The situation is very alarming for management and you as an operation manager of the company are required to examine and analyze all scenarios and give your recommendations that:

1. What would be the core areas you have to cover in order to have a most accurate forecast for the company?

2. What are the steps you would like to follow in the design of a most effective forecasting process? Give your suggestions after analyzing the variances in given table.

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