What will NATO be in 20 years?
Here again is the recipe:
1. Frame your issue, (create an issue relating to NATO)
2. Brainstorm key factors influencing issue
3. Group factors into buckets and ID two key drivers
4. Define the two ends of the spectrum for each key driver
5. Create 2 x 2 matrix based on key drivers and hi/lo values
6. Give each scenario/quadrant a cool name
7. Provide a brief narrative for how each scenario might come to pass
8. Describe briefly the implications of each scenario
9. Generate a list of observable indicators for each scenario so we can tell where the world is headed
THIS IS AN EXAMPLE
- What threat does the United Statesâ€™ induction of Space Force pose to the future security of outer-space and world peace?
- Key Factors: Global Peace, Space (outer-space) Warfare, Global Economy and Communication Systems, Global Balance of Power and Security, Global Arms Race, Spatial Militarization.
- Two Key Drivers:
- Space Security b. Outer-Space Arms Race
- Value For Key Drivers
I) Space Security:
- Low: State will exercise restraint and seek solution of the violation of UN Treaties and Principles on Outer Space Article III by the United States.
- High: States will establish independent space force to protect their interests in outer space.
II) Outer-Space Arms Race:
- Low: Restraint of the United State from militarizing outer-space
- High: States will introduce military power to protect their interests in the outer-space while launching more satellites.
- The 2 x 2 Matrix
Article III Application
Independent Space Forces
US Restraint against Militarization
Scenario A: Just as in Russia, the independent space force will collapse.
Scenario B: As in the law of the Sea, US will protect Space against militarization.
Militarization of outer-space
Scenario C: Peace and spatial border treaties a possibilities
Scenario D: Conventional Space Warfare introduced in form of hacking, cyber warfare, or satellite attacks.
- Narratives for Scenarios:
- With the United States exercising restraint in the near future under a different administration and leadership â€œpersonalityâ€, the independent space force will be abolished and/or normalized as it were under the United States Airforce.
- To uphold the establishment of the independent Space Force, the United States will rather be the door keeper when it comes to the affairs of out-space against militarization. China already condemned the establishment of the force as a threat to global peace. They are sure to establish similar force so will other states. However, the experience of the United States and advancement in possible technology will be employed as a deterrence to other states.
- With the United States establishment of the Space Force, other states are persuaded to protect their interests in outer-space hence forgoing Article III and militarizing out-space. However, to prevent a full-blown conflict, other treaties will be signed to prevent causing damage to the areas while maintaining interests and technology.
- The stay of independent Space forces leading to the militarization of outer-space will compel states to indulge in unconventional warfare tactics as bugging of satellites, and communication systems, hacking and also cyber-warfare to cause damage to opposing statesâ€™ technologies.
- Implications of Scenarios:
- The world will be calm and out space interdependence will continue leading to growth in global politics and peace at least in terms of outer space.
- UN Security Council will enshrine charters that allow for collaboration with the United States to protect outer-space.
- Complex territories in outer-space enshrined in complex treaties and charters. This is the least feasible of situations with the rotational sequences of the globe.
- Investment in complex outer-space technologies. Private companies as Space X will benefit hugely from the spatial arms race.
- Observable Indicators:
- Trump administration seem to be the only ones globally considering and implementing an independent force. There is not much discussion in the election politics. Russia tried twice to institute the establishment of an individual space force but both times failed after brief moments.
- Huge Investment by the Trump administration towards research and development of outer-space technology and life-research.
- This is the less feasible amongst my predictions as the world is not gearing towards it.
- Current cyber warfare and budding of technologies are the basics needed to build on attacking satellites.
and I have attached other example